The formation of the new Syrian government is an exceptionally complex and challenging process. Internally, power struggles among various factions and deep-seated ideological differences hinder effective governance, while external actors exert considerable influence over the country’s political trajectory. Turkey and Qatar are actively seeking to shape the new administration in line with their own strategic interests, particularly by increasing pressure on Colani’s government. A key factor in this dynamic is the tense relationship with the administration of northern and eastern Syria, compounded by Turkey’s policies regarding its military and political presence in the region. Both Ankara and Doha are pushing for a more aggressive stance from the new government against the Kurdish-led authorities in the north and east.
At the same time, Saudi Arabia is pursuing its own regional ambitions, seeking to expand its influence while counterbalancing the growing alignment between Syria, Turkey, and Qatar. Riyadh aims to prevent the new Syrian government from falling too closely into Ankara and Doha’s orbit and is, therefore, developing alternative strategies to assert its interests. Meanwhile, Western powers—including the European Union, the United Kingdom, and the United States—are closely monitoring both the humanitarian situation and the policy directions of the new leadership. A key concern for these nations is the potential resurgence of radical elements in Syria, a development that must also be weighed against the strategic responses of Russia and Iran.
Israel’s security concerns further complicate the equation. The continued presence of Iran-backed militias, particularly in southern Syria, remains a pressing issue for Tel Aviv. To counteract the strengthening of these groups, Israel periodically conducts targeted airstrikes. However, it remains unclear how the new Syrian government will position itself regarding this ongoing security challenge.
The administration of northern and eastern Syria is under mounting pressure from Turkey while simultaneously seeking to maintain its ties with Western nations. Military structures such as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are engaging in diplomatic maneuvering to preserve U.S. support while bolstering their defensive capabilities in anticipation of a possible Turkish military operation. The central question remains: how will the new government approach its relationship with the northern and eastern Syrian administration? Will it succumb to pressure from Turkey and Qatar, adopting a more confrontational stance, or will it seek a more balanced and pragmatic approach?
The next six months will be pivotal in determining the course of Syria’s political landscape. This period is likely to witness intensified political maneuvering, shifting alliances, and regional crises, further shaping the country’s fragile and evolving future.
