URGENT FLASH UPDATE SYRIA – Manbij – the risk of the return of ISIS is real. 10 December; written by Johannes de Jong, director Sallux.

The Escalation in Manbij: A Crisis Brewing in Northern Syria

In recent days, tensions in northern Syria have escalated as the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) launched a series of attacks on Manbij, a city held by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). These assaults have been bolstered by Turkish air support, marking a significant intensification of hostilities. The situation on the ground is deteriorating rapidly, with grave implications for regional stability and global security.

Turkish-Supported Offensive and Disturbing Revelations

Turkish state media has aired footage showing SNA fighters near or within Manbij. Alarmingly, some of these fighters were spotted wearing patches associated with ISIS. This revelation aligns with earlier reports suggesting that ISIS militants have integrated into the ranks of the SNA. While Turkey officially designates the SDF as an extension of the PKK—a group it considers a terrorist organization—the presence of ISIS-linked fighters within its proxy forces raises serious concerns about Turkey’s alliances and strategy.

The claim that this offensive is part of a “US-brokered deal” remains unverified. It has been circulated by Saudi media but has not been corroborated by sources within the SDF. Such speculation only adds to the complexity and opacity surrounding this conflict.

The Looming Threat of ISIS Resurgence

The potential resurgence of ISIS poses a significant threat to global security. The SDF has been the most effective force in combating ISIS in Syria, but their ability to maintain this role is now under threat due to Turkish aggression. If the SDF is weakened or dismantled, there will be no viable force left in Syria to counter ISIS. The SNA, given its alleged ties to ISIS fighters, cannot be expected to fill this void.

The absence of a unified government in Syria exacerbates the situation. Turkey, despite its military incursions, cannot extend its control across the Syrian desert to regions like Deir Ezzor. Without a robust counterbalance, ISIS could regain a foothold, posing a renewed threat to Europe and beyond. The west’s apparent indifference to these developments risks undermining the stability of the entire region.

Human Rights Violations and the Displacement Crisis

In addition to the security implications, Turkey’s actions are causing a humanitarian crisis. The systematic displacement of Kurds and Syriac-Assyrians by the SNA has forced hundreds of thousands to flee their homes. Reports indicate that this campaign of ethnic cleansing has been ongoing for at least two weeks. If left unchecked, it could result in the mass displacement of approximately two million Kurds in Syria—a population larger than that of several European Union member states.

This raises serious questions about the international community’s commitment to human rights. Turning a blind eye to Turkey’s actions undermines the credibility of western nations in advocating for human rights elsewhere. The plight of these communities cannot be ignored without eroding the moral authority of those who claim to champion justice and equality.

The Path Forward

The situation in Manbij and the broader conflict in northern Syria demand immediate international attention. The global community must:

  1. Condemn the Use of Extremist Proxies: Pressure Turkey to sever ties with factions that have links to ISIS and other extremist groups.
  2. Support the SDF: Provide diplomatic and material support to the SDF, ensuring they can continue to serve as a bulwark against ISIS.
  3. Address the Humanitarian Crisis: Mobilize resources to support displaced communities and advocate for the protection of ethnic and religious minorities.
  4. Promote a Political Resolution: Work towards a sustainable political solution that respects Syria’s territorial integrity and the rights of its diverse populations.

The stakes are high. Failure to act will not only embolden ISIS but also erode the foundations of international human rights advocacy. The world cannot afford to ignore the crisis unfolding in Manbij.